The hottest manufacturing PMI rose to the second h

2022-08-09
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In August, the manufacturing PMI rose to the second highest point of the year

Abstract: with the acceleration of the supply side structural reform, "three deletions, one reduction and one subsidy" continued to deepen, continued to reduce the burden on the real economy, promoted the transformation and upgrading of the real economy, basically formed the trend of economic stabilization and recovery, strengthened the resilience of economic operation against short-term fluctuations, and had a relatively solid internal foundation for maintaining stable and healthy development

On August 31, a bulk carrier of Taizhou Port Shipping Co., Ltd. launched on the Yangtze River in Gaogang District of Taizhou City, Jiangsu Province. On the same day, 208000 ton bulk carriers built by Taizhou Port Shipping Co., Ltd. for odendoff shipping company of Germany were slowly moved out of the dock door and safely berthed at the outfitting dock under the traction of tugs. With the promotion of the "the Belt and Road" construction, shipbuilding industry has become a pillar industry in Taizhou

on August 31, the service industry survey center of the National Bureau of statistics and the China Federation of logistics and purchasing released the China purchasing managers' index. According to the data, in August, the manufacturing PMI company had a capacity of 5000 tons of iron phosphate and 1000 tons of lithium iron phosphate, accounting for 51.7%. Calibration is a necessary procedure to measure the accuracy of instruments and equipment, which is the second highest point in the year; The non manufacturing business activity index was 53.4%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month

experts said that with the acceleration of the supply side structural reform, "three deletions, one reduction and one subsidy" continued to deepen, continued to reduce the burden on the real economy, and promoted the transformation and upgrading of the real economy. The trend of economic stabilization and recovery was basically formed, the resilience of economic operation against short-term fluctuations was enhanced, and there was a relatively solid internal foundation for maintaining stable and healthy development

manufacturing PMI rose month on month

in August, the manufacturing PMI was 51.7%, the second highest point in the year, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and generally maintained a stable and positive development trend. Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the development research center of the State Council, believes that after a slight decline in July, the PMI index rebounded in August and remained above the boom and bust line for 13 consecutive months, indicating that the foundation for steady economic growth has been generally established

in August, the new order index increased by 0.3 percentage points over the previous month, rebounding to a higher level of more than 53%. Chen Zhongtao of China Logistics Information Center analyzed that from the perspective of the survey, enterprises reflected good market demand and ideal order taking. The number of enterprises reflecting insufficient orders decreased significantly, and the proportion of enterprises surveyed fell to 38.8%, the lowest value in the past five months

due to better market demand, rising prices, improved enterprise efficiency, and increased willingness to expand production. In August, the production index rose by 0.6 percentage points, reaching a higher level of more than 54%

the bilateral linkage between supply and demand rebounded, driving the overall improvement of enterprise production and business activities. In August, the PMI of large enterprises remained basically stable, maintaining a relatively high level of about 53% since the fourth quarter of last year, and the production index and new order index were high, maintaining at about 55%. Medium sized enterprises rose significantly, with the PMI index rising by 1.4 percentage points over the previous month. The production index and new order index rose significantly, with an increase of about 2 percentage points. Small enterprises have not yet come out of the shock downturn in July, but there are also positive changes, and the PMI index has increased

it is worth noting that the recovery of traditional industries is also obvious. Among the 21 industry categories surveyed, 14 industries increased from the previous month. Steel, chemical industry and other basic raw material industries are the main industries with obvious rise. Since 2016, the supply side structural reform of steel, coal, cement, electrolytic aluminum and other basic raw material industries has continued to advance, the transformation and upgrading has accelerated, the aging supply capacity has been gradually cleared, and the traditional industries have been revitalized

Chen Zhongtao said that from a comprehensive perspective, the current economic operation has basically returned to a stable and rising trend, and the short-term fluctuations caused by seasonal factors in the early stage have basically flattened, which also shows that the resilience of economic operation against short-term fluctuations has increased

non manufacturing industry continued to expand

in August, China's non manufacturing business activity index was 53.4%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, continuing to remain above the critical point, and the overall expansion continued. Cai Jin, vice president of China Federation of logistics and purchasing, believes that the business activity index remained above 53% in August, indicating that the operation of non manufacturing industry is still in a reasonable range of rapid growth

"the non manufacturing business activity index fell for two consecutive months, and the decline expanded in August, indicating that the growth rate of market business activities fell in the short term, which was mainly affected by short-term factors." Wu Wei, an expert from the China Logistics Information Center, said that the industries that led to the decline in the index were mainly the construction industry and the wholesale industry

it is understood that in August, due to extreme weather such as rainstorms and typhoons in many places, the production activities of construction enterprises slowed down. The business activity index in August was 58.0%, down 4.5 percentage points from the previous month. However, from the perspective of labor demand and market expectation, the employee index and business activity expectation index were 54.3% and 66.0%, respectively 0.1 and 0.7 percentage points higher than last month. The employment volume of the construction industry has maintained a steady growth, and enterprises still have strong confidence in the future market development

after several months of stable growth, the wholesale activity of bulk commodities corrected in August, and the index fell significantly compared with the previous month. Wu Wei believes that the wholesale industry activities have fallen rapidly. On the one hand, the current willingness to purchase is reduced due to the continuous purchase of enterprises in the early stage and the accumulation of some inventory; On the other hand, the recent continuous rise in commodity prices has affected the enthusiasm of enterprises to purchase to a certain extent

the cost pressure of enterprises is worth paying attention to.

from the perspective of future trends, the expected index of manufacturing production and business activities in August was 59.5%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; The expected index of non manufacturing business activities was 61%, which remained high and stable

Chen Zhongtao said that the PMI index has maintained a steady recovery since the second half of last year. Although there has been a slight fluctuation during this period, it does not change this basic situation, which indicates that the economic stabilization and recovery trend has basically taken shape, and also indicates that the supply side structural reform has accelerated, "three deletions, one reduction and one compensation" has continued to deepen, continued to reduce the burden on the real economy, and promoted the transformation and upgrading of the real economy, with remarkable results. In the second half of the year, The economy will continue to develop in a steady and sound manner

it is worth noting that in the past two months, the cost pressure of manufacturing and non manufacturing industries has appeared. The purchasing price index of the manufacturing industry rose sharply, with an increase of more than 7 percentage points, reaching 65.3% in August, the highest since this year. Compared with the purchase price index, the ex factory price index lagged behind, rising by 4.7 percentage points in August, and the index level was 57.4%. The gap with the purchase price index significantly widened, reaching 8 percentage points. For non manufacturing investment, we have adopted a multi cavity mold. The input price index and sales price index have increased month on month for three consecutive months, and the increase of input price index is still faster than that of sales price index, reflecting that downstream enterprises can not fully absorb the rapid rise of upstream prices, and the cost pressure of enterprises is still large

"if the price of upstream products rises too fast, although the benefits of upstream industries will be improved, the costs of downstream industries will increase significantly and the benefits will decline, which is not conducive to the coordinated development of enterprises and economic stability." Said Chen Zhongtao

Wu Wei said that the continuous rise of raw material prices in the upstream reflects the effect of supply side structural reform to a certain extent, but the rise of upstream prices can form a virtuous cycle between industrial chains only through the transmission of downstream enterprises. The current poor transmission of prices between upstream and downstream industries reflects that there is still much room for improvement in the upgrading of end consumption

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